Happy New Year, friends!
We’re still alive over here after taking some time off for the holidays. I just booked my flight to spring training so it seems like time to dive into a few predictions about the upcoming Mariners season.
I wouldn’t say I’ve wandered too far out on a limb with most of these and some feel more realistic than others. It’s all food for thought as we head toward the 2023 season.
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Let’s get to it.
Kelenic finally figures it out
Let’s be honest here: On the surface, Jarred Kelenic’s first 500 at-bats (exactly 500) in the big leagues haven’t inspired much hope that he’ll develop into the impact player many thought he’d be when the Mets used the sixth-overall selection in the 2018 draft to get him or when the Mariners added him in a trade the following year.
How rough has it been for Kelenic? We are talking a minus-0.6 fWAR, a 30-percent strikeout rate and a wRC+ of 68. Steamer projections have him at a 1.2 WAR for the upcoming season, so maybe they’re thinking what I’m thinking: Kelenic’s best days — better days, at least — are ahead of him.
The results didn’t always show it, but Kelenic looked committed to using the entire field more after he returned from Triple A in the second half of 2022. And if there’s anyone who should benefit from the shift ban, it’s the left-handed hitting Kelenic (and Cal Raleigh, for that matter).
Here’s why I’m optimistic Kelenic will become a contributor — I didn’t say superstar — for the 2023 Mariners: We’ve seen his loud tools before, just sporadically. But it’s in there. He’s shown that. The raw power, the speed, the arm defensively, his athleticism, his instincts, and it’s hard to ignore that he ranks in the top 6th percentile in exit velocity.
There’s no way you can accurately measure this, but there’s a good chance that the missed 2020 minor-league season hurt Kelenic more than it did others. I could be wrong, but it’s worth consideration.
But we know this: Prospect development isn’t linear and Kelenic won’t turn 24 until mid-July. We’ll have a much better idea what kind of player he is after 2023. But, for now, I’m just not ready to give up on him after 500 at-bats.
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When Jerry met Jarred: The day the Mariners fell in love
Brash returns to the rotation for good
You might think I’m ridiculous — maybe you have for a while, and maybe you’re right — but I have a gut feeling that Matt Brash will return to the Mariners’ starting rotation at some point in 2023 (for good, too).
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I don’t know how this happens — injuries, trade, whatever — but I think it’s going to happen. No matter how good he’s been as a reliever since returning to the big leagues, I think Brash’s future is as a starter (and I’m sure he wholeheartedly agrees).
If you’ve been living under a rock, Brash won a rotation job last spring but then struggled with command and was sent to Triple A after posting a 7.65 ERA in five starts. The Mariners wanted him to pitch out of the bullpen, with hopes that he could help the team in that role later on.
Well …
Brash, who will be 25 in May, struck out 43 in 30 2/3 innings upon returning to the big leagues after his rough start to his major-league career in the rotation. He was dominant in the playoffs in a small sample size. We know that his slider is a wipeout pitch and his fastball has great life to it. He’s worked at Driveline this winter to add a cutter to give him more weapons.
The Mariners plan to stretch Brash out in spring training, and there’s no harm in doing so. We’ll see how the cutter looks, too. Where this all leads, who can say, but it stands to reason that Brash’s stuff is too good to stash in the bullpen given his starter’s pedigree. I’m confident that Brash’s next go-around as a starter in the big leagues will go far better than his first.
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How the Mariners acquired Matt Brash from the Padres for next to nothing
Big Dumper makes the All-Star team
Cal Raleigh’s walk-off home run on Sept. 30 ended Seattle’s playoff drought. (Joe Nicholson / USA Today)What a season it was for catcher Cal Raleigh, who found himself back in Triple A after hitting .083 in April but returned a much better player and certainly a strong presence behind the plate for the Mariners.
All told, Raleigh hit 27 home runs, posted a 4.2 fWAR and deftly handled the pitching staff while also neutralizing the running game (23 percent caught stealing rate). Sure, tell me how that .211 batting average was a drag and I’ll point to a handful of other things Raleigh did very, very well.
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And consider how well Raleigh played down the stretch, hitting eight home runs from Sept. 1 on while playing with a bum thumb that eventually required surgery.
I think Raleigh, who turned 26 in November, is set for some very big things in 2023. He’ll go into the season as the club’s No. 1 option at catcher and will certainly get most of the reps there. And, as mentioned in the aforementioned blurb on Kelenic, Raleigh — a switch-hitter — should benefit (and possibly greatly) from the elimination of the shift.
Will all this lead him to a spot on the American League All-Star team for a game that will be played at T-Mobile Park? We think so. The All-Star Game has seen so many great moments over time. And now it’s time to add another. It’s time the game gets its first Big Dumper.
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Mariners' two-decade postseason drought ends on Cal Raleigh's walk-off home run
J-Rod finishes in the top three in AL MVP voting
I mean, is this even going out on a limb? Should I just say he’s going to win it? It feels a little premature, right? That said, we’re talking about one of the most dynamic players in the big leagues who just turned 22 in December. Maybe nothing is out of reach for this kid?
Julio Rodríguez was seventh in the American League MVP vote last year and there’s no reason to think he can’t (won’t?) improve upon that in 2023. I just don’t see the possibility of a “sophomore slump” because Rodríguez has already shown that he can handle adversity and the adjustments pitchers made to him during his rookie season.
Yes, I understand the game has all sorts of ways of challenging a player, but I just have a feeling that Rodríguez is a special kind of player who can impact the game in so many different ways that he’s going to find success.
The Mariners, who have been smitten with Rodríguez since he was a teenager, thought so highly of him that they gave him a potentially record-breaking contract last summer, one that includes escalators based on how he finishes in the AL MVP vote — escalators Rodríguez insisted on.
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He was then as he has been, betting on himself.
“We initially in the negotiations did not pin anything on winning MVP awards,” Mariners team president Jerry Dipoto said. “That was Julio. Julio wanted us to know he was intent on doing these things and thought there should be tiers considered if he (becomes) that player.
“I found that remarkable. He could have opted for much easier pathways than having to go out and win MVP awards.”
As his teammate Luis Castillo said last season: “He’s the king of Seattle right now.” It’s hard to argue that.
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How Mariners’ rookie Julio Rodríguez became the new king of Seattle
Kirby is in the top 10 in the AL Cy Young
When I think of George Kirby’s rookie season, I think back to his big-league debut in May against the Rays in Seattle. This kid, just up from Double A, did not look like a rookie. Kirby tossed six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in front of a crowd of more than 32,000 — including a contingent of family and friends who watched intently from behind the plate.
He just looked the part, right? No nerves at all (at least it didn’t appear that way). He filled up the strike zone with good pitches. Kirby looked as though he’d been in the big leagues for years.
We learned a lot about Kirby in the ensuing six months, some that we knew before (his extreme disdain for balls) and some we learned last season (his steely resolve). He was good, like very good. He posted a 3.39 ERA over 130 innings in the big leagues, then earned the save in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against Toronto. And then — at a point when he probably should have been running on fumes — Kirby shoved for seven shutout innings against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS.
It’s obvious that Kirby, who will turn 25 on Feb. 4, is going places.
So why not a top-10 finish in the AL Cy Young Award vote? It just feels like the sky is the limit for Kirby.
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George Kirby leaning on the lessons he's learned as he approaches his Game 3 start
(Photo of Kelenic: Abbie Parr / Getty Images)
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